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America's Credit Catastrophe
This, the shaky American economy didn't need. If an imploding housing bubble and energy price superspike weren't damaging enough, our ailing financial system chose to slide into full cardiac event. Even though the White House, Congress, and Federal Reserve have all shifted to DEFCON 1 to try to deal with the exploding credit crisis,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], even the perfect mixture of fiscal and monetary policies seems unlikely to now avoid the worst recession in a generation. As JPMorgan Chase summed some misconception in a note to its clients: "The fat lady sings." The whole financial fiasco has moved far beyond liquidity problems on Wall Street. "This is the big one biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]," says financial historian Niall Ferguson. "It is, actually, unlikely that even $700 billion will suffice to contain this excellent credit crunch we're witnessing."
Instead of being contained, the loan crisis went viral. A number of America's biggest companies,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], for example Caterpillar, McDonald's, General Electric, are now having problems accessing the loan markets. Business borrowing has "imploded,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]," according to Brian Bethune, an economist at Global Insight. And also the longer businesses remain uncertain about the future, the more reticent they'll be to hire and invest. Rising layoffs happen to be apparent on Main Street. New jobless claims are actually running near to 500,000 weekly, a classic recession signal. But wait, there's more. Consumer loans are getting tougher to obtain, housing remains depressed, small businesses are experiencing the beginning of a capital crunch and, obviously, 401(k) plans are becoming walloped.
The ugly truth is that banking crises almost always come at a high cost to economic growth. And government bailouts and rescue plans usually mark the end of the beginning rather than the beginning of the end. Like a Federal Reserve analysis of economic meltdowns in Sweden, Japan, and other nations concludes, "Banking crises have negative long-term effects on the economy, for example slow growth, high rates of interest,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], minimizing living standards." Just take a look at Japan,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], where a financial crisis in the 1990s resulted in the infamous "lost decade" of economic stagnation.
Splat! The credit crisis has landed firmly on Main Street, and here is how it is affecting most of us:
The Homeowner
Think about credit because the Benedict Arnold from the housing implosion. After all,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], cheap and abundant credit breezy lending standards and subprime loans? a turbopump for the housing bubble, allowing even folks with checkered credit histories to obtain the experience and bid prices higher. But amid the market's painful collapse has dragged home values some 20 % below their 2006 peaks has switched teams. Now,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], a reduction in the provision of mortgage credit is putting additional downward pressure on the housing industry and threatening to extend the worst housing slump since the Great Depression. "The same credit explosion that was driving up home values will work toward driving them down," says Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff.
Are interested a McMansion? Big loans to even well-qualified borrowers are becoming more expensive. And although fixed rates on mortgages rising continue to be relatively low, banks higher delinquencies jacked up their lending stand-ards for applicants of all stripes. Harder to locate are 5 percent and 10 percent down mortgages; 20 % may again become the norm. A 30-year jumbo mortgage is hovering around 7.27 percent.) While tighter mortgage credit isn't the leading factor behind the national decline home based prices bloated inventory of unsold homes is an a whole lot larger problem certainly making matters worse. Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, says that by keeping would-be buyers on the sidelines,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the tightening works to reduce demand even while prices fall. "We could overshoot on the way down as the market overshot in route up,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]," Wachter says.
Rogoff says tighter credit will make the downturn in home prices, adjusted for inflation, roughly a third worse of computer otherwise could have been. He expects home prices to stabilize toward the end of 2009 after falling some 30 % from peak levels. Obviously, some cities are already there. Prices in Vegas are down 29.9 percent just previously year. Ny University economics professor Nouriel Roubini's outlook is even darker: He expects a decline with a minimum of 40 percent from the peak. "The recession is actually using a meaningful negative impact on the worsening situation within the housing market,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]," says Roubini, whose downtrodden economic outlook has earned him the nickname "Dr. Doom." But for homeowners, what's really scary may be the accuracy of his past projections. Roubini known as the collapse of the hous-ing bubble back in 2006, and predicted the subsequent unraveling of the credit markets and also the economic climate with alarming prescience. These systems take year to understand. As we don't have our own engineers working on them, soon, (with no exaggeration at all) nobody in america understands these large and highly complexes, but powerful technical systems. Is this great for our country?
Our business leaders know many of these, however they will still off-shore IT jobs. Why? Because go ahead and, the incentive structure for executive compensation doesn't provide them with any real motivation to serve the organization or even the country, but make themselves richer faster. Incidentally, they themselves and their friends make the incentive packages on their own. Being that they are not the actual those who own the companies, they don't really care.
In this particular sense, we now have allowed the United States of America become the biggest country on the planet when it comes to public ownership of businesses. In addition, it is a twisted public ownership because by all means, it is call "private ownership" though in any possible economic means, it is a pure public ownership.
Public ownership does not work. Communism in whatever format will fail. Scalping strategies take year to learn. If we do not have our very own engineers working on them,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], soon, (with no exaggeration whatsoever) nobody in the US understands these large and high complexes, but powerful technical systems. Is this good for our country?
Our business leaders know all of these,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], however they will still off-shore IT jobs. Why? Because go ahead and, the incentive structure for executive compensation doesn't provide them with any real motivation for everyone the company or even the country, but make themselves richer faster. Incidentally, they themselves and their friends make the incentive packages for themselves. Since they are not the actual owners of the companies, they don't really care.
In this particular sense, we have allowed america of America get to be the biggest country in the world when it comes to public ownership of companies. Additionally, it's a twisted public ownership because by all means,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], it's call "private ownership" though in any possible economic means,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], it's a pure public ownership.
Public ownership doesn't work. Communism in whatever format will fail. Without fixing the divorce between ownership and managerial power in our large companies, we'll get out of mess only find inside us another, possibly a worse one.相关的主题文章：

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