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Consumers hurt as modest inflation exceeds stagnant pay in United States,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]
WASHINGTON - The notion that consumers will help lead the economic rebound in the United States received a stark rebuttal Friday: The spending power of American families is being squeezed,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych].
Workers saw their inflation-adjusted weekly wages fall 1.6 per cent last year - the sharpest drop since 1990 - even as consumer prices rose only modestly.
Slack pay and scarce job growth are slowing consumer spending,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], along with tight credit and a rising savings rate. That's hindering the economy's ability to mount a strong recovery.
For some families,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the overall inflation rate last year - 2.7 per cent - understates their burden. Labour Department said Friday. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, rose 1.8 per cent. That's the second-smallest rise in four decades.
But to middle-class people like Angie and Larry Kimbrel of Birmingham, Ala.,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], inflation feels anything but moderate. Work is slow for her husband, a painter,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], because of the sagging construction and housing markets.
"I haven't seen anything getting cheaper," said Kimbrel,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 43. She's facing rising costs for health insurance and gas,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], in particular.
Economists expect core inflation to remain tame in 2010,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], giving the Federal Reserve leeway to keep interest rates at record lows to try to invigorate the economy. Inflation and wages remain low because employers can't or won't raise pay in an economy that's shed 7.2 million jobs since the recession began two years ago. The unemployment rate is 10 per cent,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and the number of jobless has hit 15.3 million, up from 7.7 million when the recession started in at the end of 2007.
The 1.6 per cent drop in average weekly earnings for non-supervisory workers was the worst yearly performance since a 2.5 per cent fall in 1990. Inflation-adjusted pay has sunk in five of the past seven years, underscoring the pressures households felt even before the recession. "That is the reason that inflation is not a problem."
The last period of strong wage gains occurred in the 1970s, when the country suffered double-digit inflation triggered by oil shocks. Many unions negotiated cost-of-living wage increases. To fight inflation,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the Federal Reserve responded by aggressively raising interest rates, conquering inflation but leading to a severe recession in 1981-82.
Even though the Consumer Price Index rose 2.7 per cent from December 2008 to December 2009,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], more than 50 million Social Security recipients got no cost-of-living benefit increase this year. That's because overall prices fell from July to September 2009 compared with the same months in 2008 - the period the government uses to determine Social Security adjustments.
Even as wages, on average,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], have stagnated, Wall Street is one industry that's still handing out lavish pay raises. At JPMorgan Chase,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], for example, the average compensation per employee rose to $121,124 in 2009 from $101,110 a year earlier,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the bank said Friday. The average compensation in the investment banking division was about $380,000.
While the 1.8 per cent rise in core inflation was within the Fed's comfort zone, it masked the pain consumers felt in their pocketbooks because of the big jump in energy prices and other key items.
Energy prices for the 12 months ending in December 2009 shot up 18.2 per cent. That was the biggest jump since 1979. Energy prices had dropped by 21.3 per cent during the same period in 2008. The energy surge was led by higher gasoline costs, which rose 53.5 per cent after falling 43.1 per cent in 2008.
Food prices swung in the opposite direction. They fell 0.5 per cent last year,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the biggest drop since 1961.
Another factor that's limiting core inflation is housing costs. They dropped 0,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych].3 per cent for the 12 months ending in December,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]. It was the sharpest annual decline on records dating to 1968. A glut of single-family homes on the market and record apartment vacancy rates have weighed down housing prices,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych].
Medical costs rose by 3.4 per cent in 2009, the biggest advance since a 5.2 per cent increase in 2007. That continued a trend in which the costs of hospital visits, doctors and drugs are outpacing overall inflation. College tuition costs jumped by six per cent in 2009 following a 5.8 per cent rise in 2008. It's about the only indulgence she's allowing herself. She says she's been unable to shop for clothes, shoes or anything for her home for a couple years.
With two kids - one in high school, one in college - and a salary as a mortgage processor stalled for the past few years, she's felt no benefit from low inflation.
"I don't notice anything because I'm so broke," said Bryan, 50.
Economists caution that the economy can't sustain a strong recovery until wages and job creation strengthen. Business investment and exports driven by a low dollar will help, though.
David Wyss, an economist at Standard in New York, said he expected inflation pressures to remain low through the middle of the decade,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], given the likelihood of a modest recovery with unemployment falling only slowly.
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